Brexit: counting down the hours

Wednesday 11 December 2019  



With a day to go, YouGov has popped up with its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, published in today's Times.

This looks at the demographic make-up and individual characteristics of each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain, coming up with projected vote shares for each seat. And, according to this survey, the Conservatives gain 339 seats, compared with 317 in 2017 – all with a mere 43 percent of the vote.

The current findings contrast with the similar survey published at the end of last month, on which we reported, where the prediction was that the Conservatives would win 359 seats. With the notional majority dropping from 68 to 28, that represents a significant closing of the gap between the two main parties.

In the last YouGov MRP survey, Labour was trailing with a mere 211 seats, only two more than Michael Foot got in 1983. Now, they are predicted to pick up 231 seats compared with 262 seats in 2017, based on a predicted 34 percent share of the vote. The Lib-Dems do slightly better this time round, with an estimated 15 seats as opposed to 13 in the previous survey, the SNP drop two to gain 41 seats.

Farage's little commercial enterprise gets no seats at all, staying static on three percent of the vote – although he does get as much as nine percent in some constituencies. This is what distinguishes the poll, apart from the sample size of 100,000. It looks at the individual constituencies, making predictions for each, and then building from the ground up.

It is in the nature of statistical analysis, however, that the sample size for each constituency needs to be in the order of 2,000 to produce reliable results. So while the 100K sample looks impressive, it is a perilously slender base on which to rely for constituency projections.

Nevertheless, with this detailed insight, the polling suggests the environment secretary Theresa Villiers is heading for defeat in Chipping Barnet. Other significant Conservative concerns are Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, and the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith, who are clinging to very narrow majorities.

But what makes the whole exercise rather jolly is that error range for the poll allows for 367 Tory seats at best, but the number could drop to as low as 311 – less than the party got in the last general election. That has Anthony Wells, YouGov's director of political research, telling us that, "Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament".

This, of course, makes the poll an ideal instrument for the Tories in the closing stages of the election. It is enough to give supporters heart that they can win the game, but there is enough uncertainty to avoid complacency and bring the faithful out to vote. And the Tories are going to need all the help they can get, as the weather forecast is for wet and blustery conditions.

Meanwhile, Johnson has been up in Staffordshire at the JCB factory, driving a union-jack painted JCB through a wall of expanded polystyrene blocks – a barrier so insubstantial that a gust of wind would bring it down.

This was supposed to represent breaking through the blockage and "getting Brexit done". In reality, it brought the politics of Brexit to a new low, where the prime minister in office prefers inane stunts to taking time out to explain to the electorate what he intends to do. It also demonstrated that many journalists don't know the difference between a front-end loader and a bulldozer.

If the politicians had any ideas of injecting a note of reality into the campaign though, it is now almost too late to make a difference. But there is no sign of this happening. In the last full day of campaigning – before the merciful silence for most of the day on Thursday - the party leaders and their acolytes are rushing up and down the country trying to enthuse supporters, with yet more inane stunts.

The Times, though, thinks its finding will "set the last 24 hours of the five-week campaign alight". This entails Johnson rushing up to Yorkshire to take part in an early morning milk round – another opportunity to don fancy dress.

Doubtless, bored journalists will be searching for another photograph with which to bounce Johnson – anything to break the tedium of yet another contrived stunt, or a rally in front hand-picked supporters, where media representatives are the greater part of the crowd.

Thus, while Johnson is warning that "Britain" will face a lost decade if Jeremy Corbyn triumphs in the election, we must suffer a propaganda re-launch, where existing promises are repackaged to form a "six-point plan" for the country that includes delivering Brexit and providing 50,000 more nurses and 20,000 extra police officers.

That leaves one more day of reporting of one of the most chaotic and uninspiring election campaigns in living memory, where most normal people are simply counting down the hours until it ends.

Whether the election is then "close fought" depends as much as anything on the turnout, and we will see whether people hold their noses and vote for the "least worst" or stay at home in disgust, not wanting anything to do with this unholy charade.

Although it is being called by some commentators the "most important election in a generation", it is also probably the worst fought, with neither of the two parties offering credible positions on the key matter of Brexit.

Only now, for instance, is the customs position between Northern Ireland and Great Britain beginning to be critically explored and, even though Johnson is lying through his teeth about there being no checks on goods travelling from GB to Northern Ireland, no-one seems to be prepared to call him out for the liar that he is.

And where some people might have been looking to the Brexit Party for salvation, it too is mired by a steady drip of adverse publicity, with a late report from Bristol pointing out that none of the Brexit Party 2019 general election candidates standing there actually live in the city.

On the other hand, The Sun gleefully reports that the Brexit Party founder is urging Leave voters to back the Tories after accusing Nigel Farage of going on a "monumental ego trip".

This is Catherine Blaiklock, who set up the party earlier this year, registering its name and becoming its official owner. She has turned on her former friend as well as the Brexit Party's chairman yesterday to say: "Nigel and Richard Tice's whole strategy has been a disaster". And with more sense than The Great Leader can muster, she says: "Nigel has failed catastrophically, because you're not going to get a WTO Brexit. You have to compromise".

Elsewhere, the BBC tells us that candidates are complaining of unprecedented levels of abuse. But politicians really ought to be reflecting on how long they can continue treating the electorate with utter contempt, and whether their conduct might have something to do with the way people respond to them.

The trouble is, of course, that when all politicians behave in much the same way, and truth becomes an optional extra, politics gets so debased that cynicism builds to a level where people lose faith in the whole political process. We are probably not very far from that stage now, where nothing seems real and nothing is to be believed.

Still, as we count down the hours, we can take comfort in the fact that not even a nightmare lasts forever.



Richard North 11/12/2019 link

Brexit: a lack of focus

Tuesday 10 December 2019  



It is increasingly difficult to focus on general election news. It is getting increasingly manic, especially over the treatment of four-year-old Jack Williment-Barr, and Johnson's reaction to it when questioned by ITV's Joe Pike.

The subsequent Twitter storm raises more questions than answers, and once a story gets to this level of intensity, it is very hard to separate truth from fiction – especially at the height of the campaign when everything you hear and see is suspect.

From a personal point of view, we have experienced the joy of all joys. Having waited for the whole campaign for a Brexit Party leaflet, on Sunday – like waiting for the proverbial bus - we got not one but three.

Produced for the local candidate, Kulvinder Singh Manik, the man claims to be from Bradford, having lived there all his life. But he gives his current address as Pudsey, which is that no-man's land between Leeds and Bradford. It certainly isn't Bradford.

Yet, on Twitter, he tries to give the impression he is a local lad, complaining about the closing down of a local sports centre, put down to the "the tragic spoils of 75yrs Lab MPs & 40yrs of Lab-dominated Bfd Councils". "The loss of Bradford’s proud heritage", he declares, "must stop".

Would that he knew it, the sports centre was never much good, and had lousy swimming facilities. Although we lived but ten minutes away, to get decent swimming, we would have to drive to Shipley. But now, just round the corner, not five minute's walk away from the old centre, the Council has built a brand new, state-of the-art facility, with the very best on offer.

If Kulvinder Singh Manik was the local lad that he pretended to be, then he would have known this. But it's all for show from a man who knows nothing at all of our area or the local issues.

But, with the famine broken, on the Monday we got two more leaflets from Labour and, almost taking our breath away, an election address from our Conservative candidate, Narinder Singh Sekhon.

At least with this son of a millionaire property developer, there is no pretence. There is no concession at all to local issues in his leaflet. It is entirely generic, a universal text that could have served for any number of constituencies. I think the technical term for this is "taking the piss", but certainly no-one can accuse Narinder Singh Sekhon of actually trying to win the seat.

As for the Lib-Dems, we still await anything from them. But then they have even less incentive to try than the Tories. They have absolutely no chance of getting anywhere and, this time round, might even lose their deposit.

One thus has to give Judith Cummins the accolade for at least having some local awareness. But then, as the incumbent Labour MP, and a local lass who lives in the area, even she has picked up some of the local vibes. For those that know West Yorkshire, it is the "Twocking" centre of the universe – the word based on the police acronym for "taking without consent", the current euphemism for stealing cars.

With these stolen cars racing around, and the high-powered racers bought by local Asian dealers with drug money, the streets of Bradford South can be perilous places, and our Judith has clocked this as a problem, putting it number one on her list. This is perhaps just as well because, this time, Brexit doesn't get a mention – not a single reference.

Those who prioritise on "getting Brexit done", therefore, must look to either the Brexit Party or the Tories, even though neither have a hope in this constituency. And there may be those who are even less inclined to give the Brexit Party a punt after the nakedly racist tone of two party officials in Hartlepool, as reported by Channel 4.

One, a Brexit Party councillor, apparently boasted that he tried to bury a pig's head under a mosque – which is a slightly different variation on the use to which David Cameron is said to have made of one. But then, that wasn't "racist".

This councillor, by the name of David Mincher also told an undercover Channel 4 reporter that the Moslems were "outbreeding us" and bringing down house prices because they "live like animals".

Whether racist or not, in the judgement of Channel 4, it is nevertheless a fact that the birth rate in the Moslem communities is higher than in the established white areas, and it is also a fact that, when the Moslems do move in and colonise an area, as they do, it depresses house prices. House-owners can expect to lose as much as 40 percent of the value of their properties.

Perversely, even though the offending councillor has since been expelled, some of his remarks will have a resonance with some hard-pressed voters who are on the fringes of the multi-cultural experiment of successive governments. The remarks may do the party less damage than Channel 4 expects.

The party, however, can take comfort in the words of Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, another of their PPCs of Indian origin. As eleven British-Indian candidates have been chosen, she sternly demands: " How dare you call the Brexit Party racist?"

Actually, deliberately to appoint candidates for their race, with the intention of demonstrating that you are not racists, is in fact a cynical racist act. And so is appointing candidates for this reason, in order specifically to garner votes from the same racial group. And, in that sense, both Labour and the Tories are quite obviously guilty of racism, stoking the flames of racial tension for electoral advantage.

Oddly enough, reservations are shared even by members of the Indian community, with Asad Mirza, a New Delhi based journalist remarking that the move to politicise the UK Indian community in favour of one particular party, "will only taint the image of Indians in all those countries where they are present in big numbers and will be seen as not giving up their Indian baggage in spite of obtaining coveted passports of other countries".

Mirza does note that expat Indians wherever they live, constitute a big pressure group in their host country. But if they start (or continue) to exercise that power to promote issues (such as Kashmir) that are not of concern to the host country, this is a dangerous slippery slope.

Of the move by OFBJP, Mirza feels that this "might boomerang against them," as the campaign might be seen as interference in a foreign country's affairs. However, there is no "might" about it. Many of those who are aware of what is going on are profoundly disturbed by it.

Nevertheless, we are told that analysts wonder how and why the organisation is trying to rake up issues which are India-centric, in an election which has got nothing to do with it.

Every political party and government, Mirza says, is free to form its own opinion on an issue. If the Indians have any grouse against any party, then they should try to use the channels available in that country or to force a government to government level talk on the issue.

What is doubly disturbing, though, is the willingness of the UK political parties to play the race card, and when even the Brexit Party is playing this game, it adds an extra dimension to the decline of politics that we have already observed. But then, this has been going on for some time and the temptation to appeal to specific ethnic groups seems irresistible.

However, for most people, they need not even be aware of this to know something is amiss. The poor quality of leaflets, the general way campaigners are ignoring their voters in safe seats and taking them for granted, all paint a picture that is unmissable.

From all accounts, it was exactly that picture which led so many people to vote "leave" in the 2016 referendum. And, from the evidence of this election, the political elites have learned nothing from the experience.



Richard North 10/12/2019 link

Brexit: hypocrisy on points

Monday 9 December 2019  



"Johnson vows end to migrants 'treating Britain as their own'", blares the headline in The Times today. And with that, one takes it that we're not supposed to notice that the very same Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson made a special visit to the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in Neasden on Saturday, in a very obvious pitch to garner Indian votes.

This is a man, incidentally, who was baptised a Roman Catholic but, while he has also visited the Islamic Cultural Centre in Regent's Park as part of his election beat, one does not recall him visiting a Catholic church recently. Perhaps with their high proportion of Irish and Polish, he maybe thought that if he made a pitch to the Catholic community, he would be attracting the wrong kind of immigrant.

And while Johnson is making a special issue of immigration in the last week of the election, he is not too keen to remind us that, while immigration from the EU has fallen dramatically, largely as a result of Brexit, the statistics show that the vast majority of people applying for British citizenship in the last year were non-EU nationals - 120,590 out of 175,891.

Thus, while Corbyn most certainly cannot be relied upon to bring immigration under proper control, neither are there any indications that we have anything to gain from Johnson and his fellow Tories but another dose of hypocrisy.

Nor can we expect any significant downturn from the fatuous proposal for an Australian-style points-based immigration system. Apart from the fact that this country already operates a points-based system, we had a look at the Australian system a while back, and came up with some interesting results.

Essentially, this scheme limits immigration visas to applicants who conform to certain criteria, and who have certain skills. Potential applicants have to stack up 60 points but basically, if you are under 50, can speak English and have a pulse, you can get in. There are so many "skilled" occupations almost anyone could find a fit, whether a cook, hairdresser, florist or community worker.

Thus, it is not the points system, per se through which control is exercised. For each period, the Australian government also goes through a planning exercise, setting not only the categories of migrants that will be allowed in, but also the total numbers.

For the period 2014-15, the places available in the programme totalled 190,000, of which 68 percent were skill-based (relying on the points system), while the remainder came in under the family reunion scheme. On a pro rata basis, incidentally, that was equivalent to the UK admitting half a million people.

Currently, for the 2019-20 programme, the number of skill-based entrants is set at 108,682 out of an overall total of 160,000 – the others largely coming from what is called the "family stream".

In other words, the point-based system is not a control mechanism. It is used as a planning guide to determine what type of immigrants are to be admitted in any one year. The total to be admitted is set by an annual quota and, once that is neared, the whole immigration system slows down.

Applications are put on hold, checks are intensified and all sorts of administrative hurdles come into play, all to make sure that the magic number is not exceeded.

The Australian government itself refers to the "size and composition" of the migration programme. It is set each year through the Australian Government’s Budget process, not least because the programme needs proper funding for it to operate efficiently.

Crucially, though, it is "informed following broad public consultations with state and territory governments, business and community groups and the wider public". Also, the government tells us, community views, economic and labour force forecasts, international research, net overseas migration and economic and fiscal modelling are all taken into account when planning the programme.

Therefore, in order to secure control of numbers, the Australians do not use their points system. They resort to imposing quotas. Effectively, it is a quota system. And, furthermore, it is a community derived level, rather than the top-down, almost totally opaque system that we have to suffer in the UK.

Predictably, therefore, we are hearing warnings in respect of Johnson's points-based system, that immigration could go up rather than down.

What tends to happen is that potential immigrants tend to "game" the system, attuning their qualifications to fit the categories on which entry is based. Therefore, whatever skill levels are set, there will be plenty of willing applicants ready to fill the places.

And this is not exactly unknown to workers in the field. We have the likes of Madeleine Sumption director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, who describes it as a "liberal model", relatively mainstream in the international community, and one which generally leads to an increase in immigration.

In the UK system, the crucial element will be the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), which will have the power to set quotas and to hand out visas. This means that the system will be operated in a way very different to the supposed Australian system. It will remain top-down, with very little direct accountability.

This is where the immigration system has consistently failed the British people. Historically, decisions have been taken at central government level, without consultation, without reference to the capacity of the infrastructure, and the ability of settled communities to absorb new entrants.

For it to be equitable, and command popular support, any immigration system must, primarily, be quota-based. But that quota must be set by accountable politicians, and only after broad public consultations with devolved and local governments, business and community groups and the wider public. Only then will it emulate the Australian system.

Yet, this is what is entirely lacking from Johnson's proposals. He talks big about his "cast-iron guarantee that immigration levels will come down", but there is no hint of him introducing an accountability into the system or opening up the planning system to wider and continued consultation.

Thus, Johnson's claim that he is planning to introduce an Australian-style system is so much hot air. The Australian system has elements that aren't even being discussed over here, yet which are essential to the operation of the system.

What we seem to be getting, therefore, is the same old, top-down autocratic system that lacks any real accountability and which has no realistic (or any) proposals for ongoing consultation. Issues of real concern to communities are not being addressed and we are simply being fed another dose of rhetoric and headline-grabbing sloganising.

Thus, if Johnson is intent on importing the Australian system, then he needs to bring in the whole system – not just the headline idea of having a points based system, which is already in place in the UK. Crucially, there must be annual quotas determined openly after genuine consultation, which must be published and properly enforced.  

Without this, all we have in store for us is just more self-serving hypocrisy.



Richard North 09/12/2019 link

Brexit: dead rats and balls in the net

Sunday 8 December 2019  



It's the last Sunday before the election, and a big day for opinion polls. How interesting it is though that Savanta ComRes delivers for The Sunday Telegraph exactly the sort of result that the Tories need at this stage of the campaign.

This has the Conservatives down one point on 41 percent, with Labour on 33 percent, having closed the gap by clawing back a single point. That puts the Tories eight points ahead, enough to win them a majority of only 14 seats. Thus, according to this source, they remain in the lead but the contest is still close enough to dispel any sense of complacency that might keep some potential voters at home on the day of days.

By complete contrast, the Observer has the Tories on 46 percent with its Opinium poll, unchanged since 27 November. This gives the party a comfortable 15 point lead over Labour, which is unchanged at 31 percent.

Just to confuse everybody, though, we have another Savanta ComRes poll, this one produced by the lobby group, Remain United, to a different methodology. This poll has the Tories level-pegging at 42 percent, while Labour adds four points, bringing it to 36 percent, a mere six points behind the leaders. This actually puts the Tories behind in the seat stakes.

Then we have the YouGov poll commissioned by The Sunday Times. It puts the Conservatives on 43 percent (up one point) with Labour level-pegging this time, to deliver 33 percent, a ten-point lead for the Tories which is comfortable enough if that's what it gets in on the day.

In fact, the ST tells us that a seats projection by the data company Datapraxis, which uses almost 500,000 YouGov voter interviews, suggests a Conservative majority of 38. That is ten less than two weeks ago, the paper says, but still a solid working majority.

And finally, to round off the fifth poll that we've picked up, we have the Deltapoll UK version which gives the Conservatives 44 percent (down one point) and Labour 33 percent (up one point). That gives the Tories a slightly healthier lead of 11 points, even if Labour seems to be closing the gap.

With variations between six and 15 percent, however, the only thing that the polls have in common is that the Tories are consistently ahead, even if the six-point lead gives us a hung parliament. And while a cautious prediction might give the Tories the victory on Thursday, there is enough uncertainty to leave the result open.

Chris Hopkins, the head of politics for Savanta ComRes says that the margins are "incredibly tight" at this stage of the election. The Conservative lead over Labour dropping or increasing by one or two points, he says, "could be the difference between a hung parliament and a sizeable Conservative majority". He adds, "As we’ve seen in recent elections, the final few days of the campaign could be crucial and may still define which leader finishes 2019 as prime minister".

Certainly, there are the threats of tactical voting and the possibility of local upsets. The Observer majors on the tactical voting threat, reporting that a cross-party alliance of opposition politicians "has launched an 11th-hour appeal to anti-Tory voters to consider switching allegiance" on Thursday.

The paper sees signs of "a late surge" of tactical voting, which may or may not be the case. But it is not wrong in asserting that upsets in a few swing seats could deprive Johnson of a majority. The analysis of almost 30,000 voters, for the pro-EU Best for Britain campaign, also finds that tactical votes by as few as 40,700 people in 36 key seats could end the Tory chances of forming a majority government.

The analysis concludes that if tactical voting keeps the Tories out in the three dozen seats, the Conservatives would have 309 MPs, Labour 255, the SNP 49, the Lib-Dems 14, Plaid Cymru three and the Greens one. To guarantee a majority, a governing party needs 325 MPs.

Understandably, the Tories are taking no chances. They are launching a multi-million-pound social media offensive which will take them up to polling day, which will include a £500,000 online advertising blitz, buying a banner advert on YouTube urging voters to "end the argument" on Europe and vote Conservative to "get Brexit done".

Given that we have the baseline of the current polls – albeit very far from perfect – this might provide further evidence as to the utility (or otherwise) of social media interventions, perhaps helping to settle the argument as to whether throwing money at the internet is a waste of money.

Johnson, however, is leaving nothing to chance, making immigration a high-profile issue for the last week, setting out plans which will prevent low-skilled migrants from settling permanently in the UK.

There will be three types of visa: those with "exceptional talent" will be fast-tracked without needing a job offer. Skilled workers, such as NHS staff, would be admitted if they have a job lined up. Both these groups will be allowed to settle in Britain. But a third group, comprising unskilled workers, will only be given short-term visas in sectors where there are shortages. They will not be given leave to remain.

I'm not entirely sure that this will be the winning argument, but evidently the Tories think it will have some traction, but the offer includes banning anyone convicted of a serious crime from entering the country. How that will be administered, though, is not stated, but might prove difficult to enforce for citizens of EU Member States, as we lose access to Europol databases once Brexit takes effect.

Sending something of a mixed campaign signal, though, yesterday Johnson stopped off at Neasden temple, otherwise known as the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir, a "sanctuary of vibrant Hindu worship in north-west London".

This is an obvious pitch to the Indian community, whose support he hopes to gain – with 40 seats potentially in the bag if they all vote the "right" way. He was accompanied by his girlfriend, decked out in a tasteful sari, just to prove how inclusive the couple is.

For what it's worth, the Mandir is designed and constructed entirely according to ancient Vedic architectural texts, using no structural steel whatsoever. Whether that can be taken as a symbol of Johnson's coming reign, I don't know. But, if it can, it's pretty obscure.

Prior to that, Johnson stood in a goal before a juniors girls' football match in Cheadle Hulme. As he let balls into the net, the symbolism was slightly less opaque. With that, Johnson needs all the comfort he can get, especially as the Mail on Sunday tells us that Jeremy Corbyn is "gaining ground", having closed the gap (slightly) in the battle to be PM.

This paper also conveys Tories fear that the aftermath of Storm Atiyah, threatening to bring squally weather to polling day, might keep wavering voters at home. Whether this will favour Labour or the Conservatives isn't really known, except that rainy conditions kept London "remain" voters away from the polling stations for the EU referendum. If leavers are hardier souls, perhaps Johnson will benefit.

To my mind, turnout could prove to be a (if not the) decisive factor, especially as there has been nothing in the campaign which has really set it alight, and the prevailing mood is of despondency and boredom, with widely expressed cynicism about the intentions of all parties.

In an ill-tempered election, though, Iain Duncan Smith has had to suffer a decomposing rat, sent to his office in the post. He and his Tory colleagues, may yet be hoping that their electors don't smell a rat on Thursday.



Richard North 08/12/2019 link

Brexit: playing the race card

Saturday 7 December 2019  



I tolerated about 20 minutes of the BBC Leaders' debate before switching it off. The format, as always – with carefully selected "ordinary" members of the public asking the questions – was crass. The arguments were formulaic, while Johnson and Corbyn simply talked past each other. I can't say there was more heat than light. There was neither heat nor light.

Reading diverse reports, however, has done nothing but make me grateful that I didn't sit through the whole thing, even to hear the expected cross-over accusations on racism, with Corbyn taking flak on his antisemitism while Johnson and his party are variously accused of Islamophobia.

Johnson defended himself by saying that any Tories guilty of Islamophobia or racism were "out first bounce", then going into attack mode by denouncing Corbyn's unwillingness to stand up for Jewish people in the Labour party and put an arm round them as "a failure of leadership".

In such sensitive areas, though, one wonders why both parties don't move more decisively to root out behaviours which open them up to accusations of racism, especially when political parties tend to be quick to take action when votes might be at stake.

But this very reluctance to act (on both sides) might give a clue that there are deeper agendas being played out, where there might be electoral advantages in maintaining carefully nurtured façades of hostility towards certain racial groups, especially if there are large numbers of votes to be garnered.

And the thing is that there most definitely are advantages to be gained from cultivating certain attitudes. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives can entirely plead innocence if they allow racist views to prevail within their parties, even if they deny that these are tolerated.

In the case of the Conservatives, for instance, one can point to a Times of India article as recently as last month, telling us that the British Indian vote "could swing up to 40 seats and affect the outcome of the election".

Nor is this an academic proposition as the UK group that styles itself as the Overseas Friends of the Bharatiya Janata Party (OFBJP), is for the first time in its history extending open support to the Conservatives, the group had identified 48 Labour-Conservative marginal seats as potential targets for the Indian electorate.

OFBJP UK president, Kuldeep Singh Shekhawat, gives three reasons for extending support to the Tories. Firstly, some Labour MPs joined the violent protests outside India House on 15 August and 3 September over the Indian action in revoking part of the constitution in Indian occupied Kashmir and Jammu.

Secondly, no Labour MPs spoke in favour of India in the House of Commons on Kashmir, and thirdly because of a Labour motion on Kashmir passed at their party conference.

This was even picked up by Sky News on 7 November and then by The Times in London, which ran a feature on 10 November, headlined: "Labour’s Kashmir stance drives Indians into arms of Tories", noting that an estimated 900,000 Hindu and Sikh voters of British-Indian origin could play a "decisive role" in the coming election.

In fact, there are estimated to be about 1.5 million voters of Indian origin in the UK, against about 1.1 million mainly Moslem Pakistanis, of which one million hail from the Mirpur region in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.

Following in the wake of The Times was Open Democracy which on 13 November reported on "The anti-Labour plot to polarise Hindus over Kashmir". It thus informed us that "a campaign for the hearts and minds of British Hindus is pushing them to the Tories – and it's dividing British Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims".

Huffpost also ran a story on this issue, coming in on 23 November, with a headline: "How 'Toxic' South Asian Nationalist Politics Is Rearing Its Head In The UK Election".

This source referred to WhatsApp memes which were accusing Labour of being "anti-Indian" and enabling grooming gangs, asking whether they could affect the election result.

To this, the answer seems to be strongly in the affirmative, with each party playing the race card, not least in the number of ethnic minority candidates being fielded, to the extent that the Independent was recently reporting that the UK was "on course" for a record number standing in the election.

Within that, the split in the South Asian communities is clear, as Labour has selected only one Indian-heritage candidate to fight the party’s 39 safe seats and 100 target seats.

But then, this is hardly surprising. As a rule, the Pakistani communities tend to vote as a bloc, and traditionally support Labour, returning Labour MPs in the constituencies where they tend to concentrate – as noted yesterday in a long article in the Diplomat magazine, an online publication based in Washington DC, covering politics, society, and culture in the Asia-Pacific region.

The magazine remarks that tensions between India and Pakistan have skyrocketed over India's action in Jammu and Kashmir in August and the ensuing lockdown in the region, provoking extreme reactions within Pakistan. And, with Brexit-hit Britain's third general election since the beginning of 2015 approaching, the divisions of the subcontinent on the issue of Kashmir have found their way into British domestic politics.

Pakistan, of course, with its strongly Moslem culture, is fundamentally opposed to the Israeli state, which it refuses to recognise. On the other hand, there is a close affinity between the Hindu and Jewish communities in the UK, which occasionally act in concert. And, with Israel selling arms to India, Pakistan has adopted a distinctly anti-Jewish stance, a sentiment which spills over into the UK Pakistani communities.

Thus, in the UK, we have two electorally important Asian communities, polarised on religious grounds, with tensions stoked up over Kashmir, which is being reflected in UK politics, where the Indians are increasingly supporting the Conservatives while the Pakistanis support Labour.

Each community, respectively, could be characterised as Islamophobic and antisemitic and, given their pivotal roles in the coming election, it would be surprising if some of their attitudes did not rub off on the political parties that they support. In fact, for each party to enhance and maintain that support, it would seem necessary for them to reflect the values of the communities that are giving that support.

Despite even CNN reporting the issue, there has been scant attention paid to it in the UK legacy media as a whole, although the Guardian yesterday had Shami Chakrabarti, shadow attorney general, trying to redress the balance by writing that, "British Hindus voting for Labour are not 'traitors' to India".

Pleading that there is "no room in UK politics for the hatred being promoted by a group tied to the BJP, India's ruling party" – i.e., the OFBJP – this rather qualifies as being too little, too late. The damage is already done – the polarisation has already occurred.

With that, we seem to have imported factors which further complicate our politics, and may be driving some of its more unsavoury aspects. Yet, despite their importance – with the potential to decide the election – they are not getting the media attention that they should. But then, with each political party seeking to play the race card, I doubt that the politicians want the media to take too much notice of what is going on.

But, if these factors are resistant to normal campaign influences, and we have issues such as Kashmir having a disproportionate effect on the outcome of our election, this is something that should very much concern us all.



Richard North 07/12/2019 link

Brexit: collapse at the fringes

Friday 6 December 2019  



Predictably, George Osborne's Evening Standard is crowing about Farage's latest discomfort, offering a headline which tells us: "Brexit Party odds slashed by bookies as Nigel Farage faces onslaught of resignations".

This is triggered by the loss of four of Farage's MEPs. Three resigned yesterday, including Annunziata Rees-Mogg, sister of the invisible Jacob, who are now urging voters to support the Tories on polling day. The other was John Longworth, one-time director general of the British Chambers of Commerce. He was sacked for "repeatedly undermining" what is described as "Farage's election strategy".

Mind you, any idea that Annunziata Rees-Mogg has ever been anything other than a Tory is a bit of a stretch. She was a Tory candidate in the 2005 general election, where she served her apprenticeship in the safe Labour seat of Aberavon, and then fought in the Lib-Dem marginal, Somerton and Frome, for the Tories in 2010.

It says something for "Nancy" – a name Cameron apparently wanted her to adopt – that after Tory candidate Clive Allen managed to trim the Lib-Dem lead in 2005 to a mere 812 votes, she presided over an increase in 2010 to 1,817.

Only in 2015, when she had been dropped as a candidate, did David Warburton for the Tories come storming back with a stonking majority of 20,268 after the collapse of the Lib-Dem vote. Warburton then kept the seat in 2017, with an increased majority, making it one of the safest Tory seats in the country.

Thus scorned, Annunziata took her bat home to join up with Farage, becoming an MEP in May, representing the victorious Brexit Party. But she has lasted seven months before reverting to type, deserting the sinking party to root for Johnson's Tories and their fatuous "Get Brexit Done" slogan.

Ex-Tory chancellor George Osborne has now used the opportunity to parade current bookmakers setting the party's odds of total defeat at 2/7, reinforcing opinion poll predictions that it is unlikely to win a single seat in next week's poll. This is down from being odds-on at 2/5 in October, to win at least one seat.

Betfair spokesperson, Katie Baylis is cited, saying: "After starting their campaign with a bang, the Brexit Party has failed to live up to their own hype and today's resignations show that they are not the force Nigel Farage had hoped for". They had been as short as 12/1 in June for an overall majority, but with the wheels starting to fall off their campaign they are now at 999/1.

The Telegraph is indulging in its own form of gloating, with a cartoon of Farage in front of a group of supporters, declaring "Leave means Leave", only in the next frame to have his supporters do precisely that … leave, reduced to a scattering of discarded rosettes on the floor.

But John Crace really has the measure of the man, painting a picture which I can recognise from long personal experience. "Nigel's unique talent", he writes:
… is to destroy everything he creates. He craves power but is unable to delegate or share it. People who disagree with him are cast out and crushed. Like Trump and Boris, he is a political narcissist who can see no further than his own reflection. He has no friends or equals. Only willing acolytes who are, from time to time, granted a slot as his warm-up act. Nigel makes the rules and Nigel changes them.
Yet, despite being shredded by Andrew Neil (pictured), there are still consolations for Farage. Apart from his massively inflated bank balance, this election has also seen the collapse of the main "remainer" activist group, the People's Vote, with the tale of its demise recorded in detail recently by the New Statesman.

The demise of the fringe activists on both sides has had the unexpected effect of leaving the field clear for the main parties and with the Lib-Dems failing to live up to their earlier promise, we are effectively back to old-fashioned two party politics, with the Tories and Labour battling it out for dominance.

In the "blue corner", we have Johnson pushing the "Get Brexit Done" mantra, yesterday telling us that we had "seven days" to achieve that feat, while the party is putting its effort into a negative campaign, capitalising on Corbyn's reputation as an anti-Semite and his inability (or unwillingness) to control antisemitism in his party.

In the "red corner", there is an increasingly frazzled Corbyn. Having effectively abandoned Brexit, he has now decided to fight on an "austerity" ticket, arguing that a vote for the Tories will bring down a rain of "cuts" on the land, and the destruction of the NHS as it is chopped into pieces and sold off to predatory US capitalists.

And while the national polls show a largely static position, with the Tories holding on to a slender lead, under the surface things may be very different. The Times is one of many sources to report that support for Labour is draining away in the North and the Midlands.

The paper claims that voters in areas that once counted on generous Labour majorities are aligning themselves to the party they think will most likely break the Brexit deadlock, with policies featuring only second. It cites a lawyer from Bolton who voted Remain, who tells us: "People want the person who will get them out of the EU. They are not that interested in other things".

The paper also cites the latest polling data, which show that since 2017, the drop in Labour's popularity in the North and Midlands has accelerated. According to YouGov, its vote has been hardest hit in the North West, where support has fallen by 25 percentage points to 30 percent. This puts Labour behind the Tories in a region that until now it could take for granted.

However, such projections are based on very slender data, and there is a danger that the pollsters are falling into the trap of believing their own rhetoric. More than ever, one suspects, local factors may prevail, causing local upsets which may affect the overall result.

Crucially, although Farage has taken a drubbing in the polls, in some Labour marginals his party may siphon off enough votes from the Tories to prevent them taking seats they might otherwise gain. Despite George Osborne's triumphalism, it would be unwise completely to write off Farage's influence.

That said, there is little doubt that this election campaign has failed to enthuse the voters and the mood is remarkably flat, with a "plague on both your houses" sentiment very much in evidence.

And then there is the lack of activity on the ground. Yesterday, I drove from South Bradford to Skipton, through three constituencies, and saw only one campaign poster. To date, with only a week to go, we've only had the two Labour leaflets, and nothing from any other party.

In another interesting facet, the Guardian reports on the impact of smartphones on the dissemination of news. The politicians and the media may think they are controlling the messages but, by the time they reach the end users, coverage "is warped by social media algorithms and friendship groups".

This "chaotic world" has people consuming news passively by scrolling through headlines rather than actively seeking out information. One woman in London, participating in a research project, read 29 headlines but clicked on just six and only read three articles to the end.

Several participants were observed sharing articles on Facebook without clicking the links, and excitedly diving into comment sections for an argument before looking at the articles. Most showed a tendency to read news that confirmed their existing views.

Some behaviours were more surprising, hinting we may be becoming a nation of trolls. One 22-year-old Conservative-voting woman was observed going out of her way to read reputable mainstream news sources so she had a balanced understanding of Labour policies. But she would then seek out provocative far-right blog posts to share on Facebook because their headlines would anger her left wing friends and create online drama.

Crucially, though, a lot of the content was been taken out of context, with concern expressed that phone users were "disengaging with mainstream sources". Said one analyst, "a lot of content that is quite exaggerated or deliberately presented to influence you in a way that's not connected to the full picture".

Thus, what the politicians and media are telling us isn't necessarily what the voters are hearing. People are filtering their input and deciding for themselves on the content they are prepared to accept. And, how this might influence voting, no one yet knows. This election may still be more open than we imagine.



Richard North 06/12/2019 link

Brexit: nothing to see here …

Thursday 5 December 2019  



One struggles with the question of whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is really as stupid as he appears, or if he's playing a rather devious double game – almost a variation of "move on, nothing to see here".

Johnson has been talking to ITV News's political editor, Robert Peston, whence he declared, "We will have got Brexit done, and you will find, what will happen is the parliamentary agony will be over, the political agony will be over and the misery and tedium and procrastination that been going on will be over".

On that basis, he says, "everyone can stop talking about Brexit after the end of January", assuming of course his party wins the general election.

But this claim is simply not credible. Anyone with more than the slightest knowledge of the Brexit process knows full well that, after we leave the EU (if we actually do), the next phase is going to be extremely troublesome. Inevitably, it will remain a "hot" political topic, and doubtless will be the subject of much debate.

Hence, if Johnson believes otherwise – if he really believes what he is saying – then he really is a very stupid man. On the other hand, if he's trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the electorate, then this is another example of Johnson the liar. But it's also a very stupid lie, as it is so far from being credible.

In fact, where the next phase will be taking us is already the subject of much discussion in Brussels, and the issue is to be raised in the European Council on 12-13 December – coinciding with the general election and the declaration of results.

By the time they come to publish their formal conclusions, therefore, the heads of states and governments will probably know the outcome of the election, and can certainly factor this into whatever decisions they make.

Already, though, draft conclusions have been leaked, and have been trawled over by, amongst others, the Irish Times. This paper's headline take of the draft is that it reiterates the urgency of the "timely ratification" of the withdrawal agreement.

The draft also welcomes the reappointment of current chief negotiator Michel Barnier to co-ordinate negotiations on the future relationship with the UK, while the EU leaders reconfirm their "desire to establish as close as possible a future relationship with the UK in line with the political declaration and respecting the previously agreed European Council's guidelines, as well as statements and declarations".

According to the draft, the European Council intends to invite the Commission urgently to propose a detailed mandate for the talks to the General Affairs Council. And conscious of timetabling constraints, it cautions that: "Negotiations should be organised in a way that makes the best possible use of the limited time available for negotiation and ratification by the end of the transition".

There is an interesting clue as to the EU's intentions in the reference not only to notification but also ratification by the end of transition period. If that is to occur by the end of December 2020, as Johnson intends, then it rules out a mixed treaty – which must be ratified by all the EU Member States – and thereby, by definition, a comprehensive free trade agreement.

This, then, is effective confirmation that the EU is prepared to accept a "quick and dirty" agreement, which will only encompass a very limited range of topics. We can almost guarantee that this will include a tariff and quota agreement, as this is required by WTO rules in order to qualify as a free trade agreement.

And whatever the reservations of the pundits such an agreement is not likely to be tied to any serious conditions by the EU as its Members States, with a favourable balance of trade to the UK, would be the main beneficiaries.

Nor, as is held by the chatterati, is fishing likely to be much of an obstacle. The UK will assume the status of a third country, there are already provisions in place under EU law for securing fishery agreements with third countries. The Commission has already published a Regulation which sets out the parameters, and the matter can be dealt with administratively, under the aegis of existing international law, without holding up the "future relationship" negotiations.

The Financial Times - which also reports on the draft – has EU diplomats stressing that the draft text does not prejudge the outcome of the election, but it does reflect the need for the Union to prepare itself for the UK's scheduled departure on 31 January.

But they are also signalling that it may be impossible to get everything done in the time allocated, further indicating that the EU negotiators are gearing up for a de minimis treaty.

In any negotiations, though, there is always a possibility that they could fail, and especially if either side over-reaches and demands more than the other side is prepared to give. However, with the highly experienced Barnier leading the EU team, one assumes he will know exactly how much he can push, without going too far.

But, with the EU and Member States well advanced in their preparations, there is less ground to cover than might be imagined, if the object is to keep a basic trade relationship going. Many of the procedural issues are covered by the Commission's unilateral contingency plans, requiring no immediate input from the UK government.

And, although no-one is talking about it at the moment – neither the politicians nor the media – it is entirely logical to expect talks to continue after the end of the transition period. Although one then expects a basic trade treaty to have been concluded, this can be added to at any time, and built up on an incremental basis eventually to form a more comprehensive treaty.

Therefore, talk of the timeframe being "unrealistic" – with predictions of what amounts to a no-deal departure at the end of December 2020 – are missing the point. The real issue is how much the UK negotiators – under instruction from Whitehall – are prepared to sacrifice to get a deal over the line in the appointed time.

Given Johnson's willingness to throw Northern Ireland under a bus in order to get his withdrawal agreement, one presumes that he will concede a great deal in order to walk away with his headline "victory" in securing a deal without extending the transition period. One can almost hear the crowing, as he tells us how clever he has been, apparently defying all the odds once again.

Where we go then does inevitably depend on our negotiations with the United States and other countries, but if there are major conflicts on the way, which will reduce our ability to broker enhanced access to EU Member State markets, one can easily imagine why Johnson would want to project the impression that Brexit is "done" and the talking is over. Clearly, the less scrutiny he gets, the happier he will be.

That may also explain why, in the final countdown to the election, Johnson is talking of tax cuts within weeks of leaving the European Union, with a promise that he will hold a "Brexit budget" in late February.

Under the circumstances, this would provide an effective distraction to divert the nation's attention from the impending trade talks, which are expected to start next March. As it stands, the legacy media is easily distracted by virtually any "bone" that the government throws its way, and will need little excuse to ignore what will be highly technical talks in Brussels.

Perhaps then, this is what Johnson was doing yesterday, in talking to Peston. He needs the second stage of Brexit to go away – to disappear from the public agenda. And for that he wants the cooperation of the legacy media which, from past experience, will be only too willing to oblige.

And, as long as the public can be led to focus entirely on domestic issues, that will leave Johnson free to sell us out on the international stage without anyone noticing, or worrying too much – the classic misdirection technique.

It almost makes you wish that the man was lying again. He is more dangerous when he appears to be telling the truth.



Richard North 05/12/2019 link

Brexit: the election that died of shame

Wednesday 4 December 2019  



With so much going on, substantive Brexit issues have almost disappeared from the national news agenda. Eight days before the vote, therefore, the politicians are effectively running down the clock and, in the time available, are unlikely to be seriously challenged in the time left.

Even if it is accepted that Johnson is the only choice for voters who want to see Brexit "done", that still doesn't excuse the Conservatives from making clear the next steps they intend to take, with clear statements as to the trade-offs which we will have to accept.

But the crucial questions which should have been addressed and answered during the course of the election campaign have been unresolved. So now we are left with a scrappy, messy, jumble of noise which has totally failed to do anything but render the so-called "Brexit election" a charade.

Effectively, we will be going into the polling booths blind – those of us who intend to vote. Votes will be cast on the basis of incomplete information, forcing the electorate to take a leap in the dark. Almost proving the point, we have a headline in the Independent which declares: "Boris Johnson sparks more uncertainty after refusing to say if businesses should continue no-deal Brexit preparations".

This comes after Dominic Raab confirmed yesterday that the UK will "absolutely" keep no-deal on the table in trade talks with the EU following the UK’s formal withdrawal on 31 January. And since the Johnson has unequivocally ruled out any extension of the trade talks beyond December 2020, there are worries that the 11-month negotiation period will end in us dropping out of the transition period without a deal.

In several pieces on this blog, I have suggested that we are in fact more likely to emerge with a "quick and dirty" deal which initially will amount to little more than an agreement on quotas and tariffs. Thus, deal there will be, except that the immediate outcome will be little better than if the government had actually failed to reach any agreement.

In a sense, therefore, it is entirely sensible to keep no-deal preparations in hand, as many of the provisions will be needed, alongside the EU's no-deal contingency plans.

But we really should not be in a situation where the Independent claims to have asked Johnson three times whether businesses should be preparing for the possibility of no deal on 31 December 2020, only to have the prime minister in office dodge the issue entirely.

What he did say is that, "We have a great deal” which is "going to allow us to come out smoothly and efficiently on 31 January", but that isn't really the point. If the withdrawal agreement is in place, we immediately move into the transition period, which is a "standstill" provision which leaves our trading relationships with the EU unchanged.

The trauma comes when the "standstill" - or transition period – comes to an end, and that is planned for us after 31 December of next year. People and businesses have a right to know what is in store for them and, with only an 11-month negotiation period, there is no possibility of a "good deal". It is going to be bad. The only question is, how bad.

We do, of course, have the final debate between Corbyn and Johnson on Friday, this one on the BBC. But, given the dismal failure of the broadcast events so far to shed any real light on the leaders' intentions, there is little expectation that anything new or interesting will emerge. Still less do we expect Johnson to remove the "uncertainty" of which business complains.

It should be that Johnson is pinned down on exactly what his intentions are for the "future relationship" talks, but even in the unlikely event that the right questions are asked, Johnson will probably "chunter" his way through, failing to deal with the points raised.

Meanwhile, of course, Corbyn is just as bad, if not worse, having projected an entirely unrealistic Brexit policy, predicated on a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement, without any detail being specified. And, so far, he has been allowed to get away with this, largely unchallenged.

During the 2016 referendum, I lamented that the legacy media was unable sensibly to report on referendums, and was treating the event like an election. But, as we progress into this election, we are having to conclude that they can't handle elections either. This will be the campaign which ground to a halt, having died of shame.

Basically, with the politicians unwilling to inject any real substance into their Brexit policies, and with the media unable to drag the detail out of them, the debate is dying a death. Beyond endless, and largely repetitious speculation, we are all running out of things to write about.

Even the wonks and the specialist journals are sounding bored, while being both repetitious and unimaginative. Euractiv, for instance, has Sir Michael Leigh, a former EU chief enlargement negotiator, droning on about difficulties in reaching an agreement in 11 months – as if we were not aware of them already.

He argues that Johnson could only make a breakthrough in FTA talks "if he is ready to stab his Singapore-on-the-Thames friends in the back and commit the UK to applying relevant EU principles, rules and standards for the lifetime of the agreement".

All that shows, though, is that the wonks have little to offer either. A clinical evaluation tells us that if Johnson is determined to conclude a deal in 11-months and Michel Barnier has already intimated that a deal can be done, then a deal will be done in the time. But it will not be able to encompass a comprehensive deal which includes an accommodation on regulatory standards. That simply cannot be done in the time.

Thus, "quick and dirty" is all we are going to get, and it is about time that the wonks got to grip with this, and started to spell out what it will entail. When it comes to the detail, though, they are no better than the politicians.

Leigh thinks that the prime minister "would do better to come clean with the electorate on the complexity of the task ahead rather than face new accusations of duplicity when his promise that a trade deal with the EU will be concluded in 2020 comes to nought". Better still, Leigh needs to be warning of the consequences of that "quick and dirty" deal.

Possibly, because so many of the actors have nothing new or interesting to say, the gathering ennui is being reflected in the polls.

The latest YouGov poll has the two main parties largely static, with the Conservatives on 42 percent (down one point) and Labour on 33 percent, also down one. This leaves the Tories with their narrow nine point lead, only two points above the turning point, where we see a hung parliament.

Even Kantar are only putting the Tories 12-point ahead now, having last month awarded them a virtually unassailable 18-point lead, despite reporting that the recent Labour "surge" has stalled. Still worse, ICM only gives the Tories a seven-point lead.

Despite Brexit still leading as the issue deciding how people vote, the election contest is so lacking in energy that the parties are not even able to push the gap between them any wider. Both sides stumble on, generating neither enthusiasm nor passion, as their candidates go through the motions.

Perhaps Trump, on his visit to the UK yesterday and today, having decided he doesn't want our NHS, even on a "silver platter", might be prevailed upon to take our politicians back with him. There surely must be plenty of room in Air Force One. That, at least, would give us something to cheer about.



Richard North 04/12/2019 link

Brexit: time for a change

Tuesday 3 December 2019  



No sooner have I pointed out some home truths about my own constituency, Bradford South, than the Guardian produces a piece which exactly describes the situation we're in.

The headline (pictured) tells us that 14 million UK voters live in areas held by the same party since the second world war. That applies in spades to Bradford South and its 67,751 voters, which has been held by Labour since 1945 and since 1924, with a short break when the Liberals took the seat.

The certainty with which the seat returns a Labour MP makes a mockery of the democratic process. Those voters in this coming election who would vote for another party are, on the face of it, wasting their time. The incumbent, Judith Cummins, looks certain to get back in.

It is that situation, where even the average seat had not changed hands for 42 years, that has the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) say that the electoral system is "broken".

The ERS study found that 98 Labour seats have been in the party's hands since the war, 37 percent of their 2017 total, with 94 Conservative seats in the same situation, 30 percent of the constituencies they won at the last election, affecting 13.7 million potential voters overall.

The organisation, though, puts the problem down to the inflexibility of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, where single MPs are picked per constituency on a non-proportional basis. At the 2017 election, only 70 seats, or 11 percent of the total, went to a different party, with this figure in gradual decline. According to a YouGov seat-by-seat projection for the 12 December, only 58 seats are due to change hands.

Thus, of 650 Westminster seats supposedly up for grabs, the actual election will turn on less than ten percent of the seats, while the rest of us are consigned to the status of impotent spectators, with absolutely no influence on the eventual outcome. Whatever this system is, it isn't democracy. Yet, despite the view of the ERS, I don't accept that the FPTP system is the issue. For sure, if we had some form of proportional representation, some of the minority parties might get some seats, and there might be more contenders, but it is difficult to see how you can keep the area-based constituency system, each with their own single representatives, and have proportional representation.

Most forms of proportional representation require multiple-member voting districts (sometimes called "super-districts"), and the types of proportional representation which have the highest levels of proportionality tend to include districts with large numbers of seats. The way the European elections work is a good guide.

For my money, the real problem for the lack of change in the seats is the party system, where the finite resources of the parties only allow them to fight a limited number of seats in any one election. Thus, as we're seeing now with the battle centred on just over 50 seats, the rest of us are left to rot.

Oddly enough, although Bradford South has been solid Labour since 1945, it nearly turned in 1983 when the Thatcherite Tories cut the incumbent's majority of 4,318 in 1979 to a mere 110 votes.

It nearly did it again in 1987 when Labour could only manage a majority of 309, with the Tories and Labour neck and neck. I remember those days well, when there was a real buzz in the air, politics all of a sudden became interesting and we were all hanging on when the results came out to see who had won.

The moment passed though, and by 1992, with Major as prime minister, we were back to the status quo, with the Labour incumbent gaining a majority of 4,902. From that day to this, the Tories have never come close to taking the seat, with Judith Cummins fighting to protect her 6,700 majority.

Despite that, Electoral Calculus is predicting that this time round, the seat could be a Conservative gain, holding a majority of just over a thousand. This is based on the fact that we delivered a 63.56 percent majority for "leave" in the EU referendum.

Personally, I think the prediction is wrong. Although we had a clear majority in the referendum, turnout was relatively low, while the ward with the largest Moslem community (Great Horton) voted decisively for "remain".

Generally, the Moslem communities tend to vote Labour as a block, and they tend hold the balance of power in the constituency, with about 12 percent of the total vote in what is otherwise a predominantly white, working class area.

But the real give-away is that the Tories are not even trying to win the seat. They've parachuted in the son of a millionaire Indian property developer, a man who has no economic ties with the constituency, doesn't live in the area and has not even bothered to campaign. So far, in the entire period, we've had one leaflet and an electoral address from Labour, and that's it. None of the other parties have even leafleted us.

In the district, you would be hard-put to see any posters or billboards and the last time the local paper – which serves four constituencies – mentioned the election was on 22 November. The Tory candidate got two lines and has otherwise been invisible.

Without watching the national media, you would be hard put to know that there was even an election campaign going on in this constituency and it is no fault of the FPTP system that we are left to rot on the margins. In 2015, when Ukip was at its height, the combined Ukip and Tory vote exceeded the Labour vote by over 2,000, demonstrating that the seat could be winnable, especially as the Lib-Dem vote had collapsed. But the parties have to put the effort in, and so far they are not even trying.

Nevertheless, whenever we get discussions about political reform, there is always a caucus which pops up to argue for electoral reform, with proportional voting high on the agenda.

Yet, for countries which have adopted proportional representation, one doesn't see noticeably improved governance or systems which are self-evidently more democratic. Simply, you end up with a different way of making the same old mess.

I sometimes think that people are too focused on the mechanics and rituals of democracy, without thinking through what they are trying to achieve. And here, one should recall that the ancient Greeks, who invented democracy, did not elect their assemblies. Their representatives were selected by lottery.

To my mind, I would be happy with a system where those prepared to serve registered with their local authorities, which held a ballot of registered applicants every five years to determine who went to Westminster. One could require that, in order to register, each applicant had to pass a qualifying examination and interview, to determine their suitability as MPs. And, of course, party membership would be forbidden.

Elections, in such a system, might be reserved for prime ministers, who would be directly elected. Neither prime ministers nor their cabinet members would be MPs, affording the separation of powers that the current system lacks. The job of parliament is to scrutinise the executive, not to provide a ministerial gene pool.

However, for lack of an equitable system, come 12 December, the majority of us will be sitting on the sidelines, with the election a spectator sport which has absolutely no practical relevance to our constituencies.

When Jess Garland, head of policy for the ERS, says, "We’ve heard often that politics is volatile and anything could happen in the coming election, but even so, hundreds of seats across the country haven't changed party hands for decades", we have to accept that the system is broken.

Whatever this system is, it isn't democracy. It's time for a change.



Richard North 03/12/2019 link

Brexit: failing to deliver

Monday 2 December 2019  



There have been diverse views about the Marr interview of Johnson yesterday. But, on reading the transcript carefully, I have to say that it didn't convey anything that we didn't already know or might have guessed.

If you enjoy the sport, then that is all very well, but those who came to the programme with the aim of coming away better informed about Johnson's policies and intentions would have been disappointed. And, in that sense, it was a complete waste of everybody's time.

With that, one must really question the purpose of these political interviews. Either they are for entertainment or for information. But, what is increasingly evident is that they can't provide both.

That much even emerged from the Marr interview when, at one point he wanted to change the subject to what he called Johnson's "overarching financial problem". When Johnson, kept talking, Marr interjected with the comment: "I'm sorry, you just keeping going on and on and on. You're chuntering. I need to ask you about the money". 

Without even blinking, Johnson responded: "You’re chuntering; you're interrupting, if I may say so", then to add, "People might be interested in my answer as well as your question. But go on".

To an extent, Johnson had a point. People tune in to watch political interviews to learn what the politicians have to say. In the grander scheme of things, the identity of the interviewer is irrelevant.

What matters are the questions and they only matter if they elicit answers which, in turn, provide information. If the end point isn't information then the interview is just entertainment – nothing more. And, for that, I would sooner watch Netflix.

While one might seek to improve on the standard of the interview, or go to another interviewer – the famous Andrew Neil, for instance – one can also take the view that the interview is perhaps the least reliable way of extracting information from politicians.

In terms of defining the genre, what we are looking at is oral evidence and that, in itself, is usually the least reliable form of evidence that we can obtain. If we're really seeking information, then there have to be better ways.

Of course, when it comes to general elections, we all have the party manifestos to which we can refer. However, since most of these are vague and largely aspirational, even forensic analysis can only take us so far.

But what could be fun – and doesn't seem to have been tried – is then to submit written questions on key aspects of the manifestos to the respective parties, and then to ask for written answers.

Nothing, however, can make up for the inadequacies of the questions asked, as we see in the Marr show. Johnson makes several references to his famous catch-phrase, claiming that he will "get Brexit done" – or words to that effect, but Marr doesn't follow through.

It would have been so easy to turn round and set out a structured series of questions, seeking to learn from Johnson, initially how Brexit can be "done" when the withdrawal agreement is but the first stage in what we know to be a long process.

From there, it would be incredibly useful to ask, specifically, what sort of trade agreement Johnson was planning to negotiate with the EU, seeking precise details as to the negotiating objectives and expected outcomes.

The end point of such a line of questioning should be able to establish from the prime minister in office exactly what the UK negotiators might expect to achieve by the end of December 2020. And, fortified with that information, one could then try to establish what the consequences might be (advantages and disadvantages) to business and more generally to the nation.

All we got from Marr yesterday, though, was an ill-judged question on Northern Ireland and Brexit – leaving the main issues hanging. Marr thus asked: "On Brexit will there be tariffs and checks on goods moving from Northern Ireland into Great Britain?"

Predictably, Johnson answered, "Absolutely not. Absolutely not" – a phrasing he seems to rather like – evoking a response from Marr, who said: "That's not what your Brexit secretary says and he's looked at the law, as he said there will have to be checks".

Yet, that is not what Stephen Barclay has said. The point that he actually made, in the Commons on 24 October was that, in effect, checks would apply to "goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland" which are destined for the European Union. There would, he said, "be minimal targeted interventions", the current euphemism for border checks. There would be no checks on goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

In other words, Marr got it the wrong way round, leading to a fatuous exchange which produced nothing of interest simply because he was asking the wrong question. In fact, if there was a question to ask, it was whether Barclay was being economical with the truth as the revised protocol sets out in detail a series of required "interventions" which are very far from minimal.

Through the inadequacies of Marr, therefore, Johnson easily escaped the hook, without ever getting impaled on it – another example of the notorious incompetence of this man, who is really not up to the job.

And this is something the media itself can't seem to deal with. Predictably, the Guardian was in full flow about the interview, having Jane Martinson complain of Johnson "filibustering his way out of any answers as though he were a poor contestant on Just A Minute".

In Martinson's eyes, "Marr tried his best but even describing Johnson's refusal to stop talking over him or answering the questions as 'chuntering', rather than 'lying", felt wrong".

The Guardian itself is willing to concede that the BBC has been undermined by "its own gaffes", but its theme is that "Tory bullying is corroding public trust in journalism". It just cannot seem to acknowledge the awfulness of Marr and his utter incompetence in framing or asking the right questions.

Elsewhere yesterday, though, there was the "seven-way ITV debate" – more of the same "infotainment" that I didn't even bother watching. There are only two possibilities for prime minister to emerge from this election – either Johnson or Corbyn, and it is the former who looks to be the likely victor.

If there is any chance of hitting the ground running with effective scrutiny, it is essential that we have a very clear idea of what each of these two candidates is preparing to do, should they assume the office of prime minister. At this stage in the proceedings, what the rest think is irrelevant.

So far, weeks into the campaign, with only ten days left to the vote, we are no further forward than when we started. If anyone is looking for the real reasons why public trust in journalism is "corroding", it is quite simply that the media has been unable to deliver the goods.

One expects politicians to wriggle and prevaricate – that's what they do. But if the media has one job, it is to bring to the public the real intentions of those who seek elected public office, then to enable them to be brought to account when (or if) they fail to deliver.

And, for all that, tonight, we have to be braced for "fresh revelations" about Prince Andrew as BBC Panorama prepares to air an interview with "sex slave" Virginia Roberts who claims she slept with the royal as a teenager.

Frankly, the height of a general election campaign is not the time to run this programme. It can wait – we have more pressing matters to deal with, of greater long-term significance. But such is the media incontinence that they will drop everything to chase after this distraction. Again, politicians will escape unscathed.

That leaves us with only one certainty: democracy cannot survive if we have a dysfunctional media. It is a small wonder, therefore, that our politics have collapsed on the pavement and are in desperate need of CPR.



Richard North 02/12/2019 link
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